As I wrote in a recent post, over the last decade, my guiding principle in venture investing has evolved to: Startup success is an improbable outcome, accordingly, as an early stage VC, one needs to invest in founders who are capable of improbable outcomes. That’s a very specific phrase I’m using here - “improbable outcomes”. We phrase it this way because it makes our internal deliberations more pointed and aware of the uphill journey ahead. In our interactions with founders, in our backchannel references, in our internal discussions, that’s the question we’re constantly focused on: is this person capable of improbable outcomes?

So what makes me compelled about a founder enough to feel good about this question? After a decade full of iterations, for me, it has come down to these five traits:

High IQ: Company building is a multi-variable problem with the inputs to the variables being amorphous more often than not. You need to be able to hold multiple variables in your head and keep powering forward.
Larger-than-life ambition: Good is the enemy of great. Scale of ambition is the starting point of everything that follows, and can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Ability to make people believe: I’m intentionally not saying “strong communication skills” here. A lot of people have good communication skills. But there’s an extra gear some people have which enables them to make others believe in the story before it becomes real. Founders have to get potential recruits, customers and investors to believe in them. Framing it as good communication skills misrepresents the level at which this trait is needed.
Grit: Enough said!
Urgency: I’ve realized that even if all the other four factors above are present, a lack of urgency is a real problem. A startup lacking velocity is simply not going to succeed. Velocity as a cultural trait starts with the founder, and it’s either there or not. There’s no in-between.

Ultimately though, there's no formula to venture picking. Some founders spike in a few of these traits, others have a better balance across the board. More often than not, I am investing in the slope of the person vs. where they’re right now on these. Often, I make mistakes in reading these traits too. But when I start seeing a good combination of these five traits come together in a founder, I get really, really excited!!

I’d LOVE to hear how founders and other VCs think about traits that are mission critical for startup success. What am I missing that I should be looking for?

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PS: I believe that recruiting an A+ team is the founder’s most important job post finding product-market fit. But I don’t include “being a good recruiter” in the above traits because I think that’s a function of #1 and #3 above. That said, when I’m investing, one of the questions I’m asking myself is - Does this person have the combo of traits for them to be able to recruit a high quality team?